CCC warns UK infrastructure at risk of cascading climate disruption

The UK Government and regulators must take a more structured approach to managing the interdependencies between infrastructure systems or risk widespread disruption from climate change, according to a major new report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

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The report, A Well-Adapted UK, warns that rising temperatures, flooding and drought are increasing the risk that failures in one part of the country’s infrastructure could trigger knock-on impacts across transport, energy, communications and public services.

The CCC said the UK’s infrastructure was largely designed for a historic climate that no longer exists and is becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather. It highlighted overheating of power systems during heatwaves as one example of how climate impacts could cascade through connected networks, potentially causing power cuts that disrupt digital payments, transport systems and essential public services.

“Key infrastructure systems need to be designed and maintained to work appropriately for the weather conditions expected over their lifetimes,” the report said, describing this as “the fundamental step in reducing the risks of cascading infrastructure failures”.

The report forms part of the evidence base for the UK’s next Climate Change Risk Assessment and sets out what the CCC describes as a comprehensive adaptation programme for a warming climate. It identifies heat, flooding and drought as the three most urgent climate threats facing the country over coming decades.

The CCC said adaptation policy has for too long lacked coordination and warned that the growing complexity and connectivity of infrastructure systems increases the likelihood that climate impacts will spread between sectors. It called for greater collaboration, data sharing and clearer reporting arrangements between operators, regulators and government departments.

The report said recent examples of electricity and digital outages demonstrated the importance of contingency measures such as backup power supplies, equipment maintenance and clearly defined emergency response responsibilities in limiting cascading failures.

The committee also warned that significant investment decisions currently being made in water, energy and transport infrastructure represent a critical opportunity to improve climate resilience before systems become locked into future vulnerability. While some shorter-lived assets can be replaced with more resilient alternatives at the end of their operating life, it said much of the UK’s existing infrastructure would require retrofitting.

The CCC says the cost of inaction is far greater than the cost of acting now. The Committee’s proposals require investment of around £11bn a year, split broadly evenly between public and private funding. 

Without adaptation the cost of climate change to public welfare is predicted to rise to between 1-5% of UK GDP by 2050 under a 2°C global warming level, equivalent to £60-£260bn per year.