IPPR identifies £140bn “missing investment” in northern transport
Think tank IPPR has identified what it describes as £140bn of “missing investment” in northern transport since 2009/10, which is more than the entirety of capital spending on transport in the North since the millennium.
The analysis by economist and former Treasury Minister Lord Jim O'Neill with IPPR’s Marcus Johns and Zoë Billingham shows that London received on average 2.43 times as much public transport spending per capita than the North and almost double (1.96) the overall UK average over the last 10 years of available data (2013/14–2022/23).
Furthermore the report finds the gap between per capita transport spending in London and in the North has grown in recent years. Spending on transport in London has increased 1.85 times more per capita than across the UK overall and 2.11 times faster than the North on average each year over the past decade.
The independent analysis of Treasury figures lays bare the extent of the UK’s transport investment divide under the previous government. Over the decade to 2022/23, each year:
London received £1,183 per person
The North saw £486 per person
The North East saw £430 per person
The North West saw £540 per person
Yorkshire and Humber saw £441 per person
The UK as a whole received £603 per person
And England as a whole saw £592 per person
And had London-level spending per head been received from 2009/10 onwards, the authors calculate that by 2023/23 the North would have seen £140.42bn more in transport spending. IPPR estimates the entirety of capital spending on transport in the North since the millennium to have been £82.52bn.
IPPR attributes the problem to be “a systemic undervaluing of investment in the North and investment in transport, particularly in HM Treasury”. The authors say “Fixing historic underinvestment would improve connectivity and better unlock the growth and regeneration benefits that this provides” and “push the North to a higher growth path that supports a more prosperous economy for the whole nation.
“Our longstanding economic growth model has focussed on furthering investment in already highly productive places, overlooking the long-term potential of places further behind.
IPPR argues “Investing in transformative and integrated transport schemes, especially rail, offers political, socioeconomic, and environmental rewards. The North has the potential to act much more like a single joined-up economy with multiple centres, rather than several disconnected economies. This potential is accessed by efficiently linking its numerous, and relatively close together, towns and cities, growth assets, and international connections.
“This prize is significant—increasing investment in growth-enabling policy areas like transport, skills, and innovation could add £118 billion the North’s economy by 2050.
Lord Jim O’Neill said, “Good governance requires the guts to take a long-term approach, not just quick fixes. So the Chancellor is right in her focus on the UK’s long-standing supply-side weaknesses – namely our woeful productivity and weak private and public investment.
“Backing major infrastructure is the right call, and this Spending Review is the right time for the Chancellor to place a big bet on northern growth and begin to close this investment chasm. But it’s going to take more than commitments alone – she'll need to set out a transparent framework for delivery.”