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James Hutt, co-founder, IfDT
Autonomous vehicles are set to transform how people and goods move, but the implications reach far beyond transport. James Hutt, co-founder of the Institute for Driverless Transport, says the challenge now is to understand the economic, social and institutional consequences – and invites the wider transport community to help identify the most important unanswered questions and shape the next stage of research.
The arrival of driverless transport is often discussed in terms of technological progress: vehicles that can navigate without a driver, robotaxis operating in our cities, and the prospect of automated buses, freight and delivery services.
But the technology itself is only part of the story. Its consequences could extend into almost every aspect of the transport system and the wider economy, affecting employment, productivity, accessibility, public services, urban development and national security.
The UK has an opportunity to benefit substantially from this transition. Autonomous vehicles could make travel safer and cheaper, improve mobility for people who cannot drive, and release millions of hours currently spent behind the wheel. Businesses could gain from more flexible and productive transport services, while communities could benefit from improved access to jobs and essential services.
“These are not questions that the transport technology sector can answer alone”
However, there are equally important questions about who benefits, who bears the costs and how we manage the disruption. What happens to professional drivers if demand for their services falls significantly? Could local authorities become dependent on commercial operators for essential transport provision? How do we protect national resilience if critical transport services rely on overseas technology and suppliers?
These are not questions that the transport technology sector can answer alone. They require input from policymakers, businesses, local authorities, researchers, trade unions and the communities affected.
This is the thinking behind the Institute for Driverless Transport's (IfDT) new Research Roadmap, which sets out 65 unanswered questions across five areas: Economics & Productivity, Social Change, Job Displacement, Security & Geopolitics, and Speed of Rollout.
Developed through dozens of interviews and wider discussions with people across industry, government, academia and civil society, the Roadmap is intended to provide a common framework for identifying where further evidence is needed and directing research towards decisions that will make a practical difference.
The questions are deliberately wide-ranging. How quickly might driverless services become cheaper than conventional transport, and how much time will organisations have to prepare? Can autonomous vehicles deliver genuine independence for older and disabled people? How should we approach the transition for workers whose livelihoods depend on driving? And what safeguards will be needed to protect Britain's transport system from new forms of technological and geopolitical dependency?
For the Institute, the priority is to move these questions from discussion into practical research, bringing together the expertise, funding and partnerships needed to find answers.
There is a relatively narrow window in which to influence how this transition develops. Services, markets and regulatory frameworks are still taking shape. Decisions made now about investment, planning, skills, procurement and public policy will have consequences for decades.
“The priority is to move these questions from discussion into practical research, bringing together the expertise, funding and partnerships needed to find answers”
That makes this an issue for the whole transport community, not simply those developing or operating autonomous vehicles.
We are inviting people across the transport and infrastructure sectors to help shape the next stage of the research. The interactive Research Roadmap is available online.
Explore the questions most relevant to you and your work and tell us which should be prioritised, where you believe further evidence is needed, and who else should be involved. Please send your suggestions to team@institutefordriverlesstransport.co.uk. You do not need to be an autonomous vehicle specialist to contribute.
The objective is not simply to understand what driverless transport might become, but to ensure we are better prepared for what it will mean.
The future of transport is being shaped now. We need to make sure the research and wider conversation keep pace.
James Hutt is co-founder of the Institute for Driverless Transport, which helps policymakers, businesses and communities prepare for autonomous vehicles. His work examines how driverless transport could affect jobs, productivity, access to services and national security. Through IfDT’s research and discussions with industry, government and civil society, he brings together people who can help the UK realise the benefits of driverless transport while preparing for its risks and disruption.
James and IfDT will be continuing the conversation at Interchange in Manchester on 2/3 March